Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Czarnik wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 45.8% vs Paul 53.4% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 68.4%
Defensive zone
Czarnik 68.3%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 71.7%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Czarnik
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Czarnik
Paul
Last 5: Czarnik 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Czarnik
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Czarnik
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
1
0
Czarnik
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (156)
53.8% (753)
-10.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
58.9% (90)
-58.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
47.4% (78)
-14.1%
On power play, Paul has a +58.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Czarnik is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Czarnik shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Paul
Home
46.1% (76)
54.2% (450)
Away
40.5% (84)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Czarnik
Paul
P1
44.2%
58.2%
P2
41.2%
50.6%
P3
44.6%
52.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
43.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |