Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 68.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.7%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 58.8%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Czarnik
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Czarnik
Paul
Last 7: Czarnik 3-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Czarnik
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
2
1
Czarnik
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
1
0
Czarnik
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
52.5% (3,796)
-6.7%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
56.5% (480)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
46.7% (574)
-9.2%
On power play, Paul has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Czarnik is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Czarnik shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Paul
Home
45.1% (335)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
45.6% (331)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Czarnik
Paul
P1
47.8%
53.9%
P2
47.4%
51.0%
P3
40.6%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |