Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.4%). Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 51 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Horvat shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Horvat 54.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 80-80 in 160 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 58.7%
Defensive zone
Horvat 55.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 52.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Matthews
Horvat
Head-to-Head Record
80
-
80
(160 meetings)
80
80
Matthews
Horvat
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Horvat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
33
18
Matthews
Horvat
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
20
32
Matthews
Horvat
52 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
27
30
Matthews
Horvat
57 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Horvat
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
53.9% (12,606)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
61.0% (2,699)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
47.1% (1,494)
+2.7%
On power play, Horvat has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horvat shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,714).
Home / Away
Matthews
Horvat
Home
56.3% (5,065)
56.0% (8,355)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
52.9% (8,445)
By Period
Matthews
Horvat
P1
55.5%
54.1%
P2
53.3%
54.4%
P3
52.8%
55.0%
OT
56.6%
49.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |