Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 57.0%). Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Horvat shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Horvat 56.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 54.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 58.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.6%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Matthews
Horvat
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Matthews
Horvat
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Horvat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
0
Matthews
Horvat
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
5
Matthews
Horvat
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
3
Matthews
Horvat
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Horvat
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
55.6% (1,066)
+0.7%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
65.4% (289)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
49.2% (120)
+0.8%
On power play, Horvat has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horvat shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Horvat is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (912).
Home / Away
Matthews
Horvat
Home
60.7% (572)
58.8% (724)
Away
52.4% (657)
55.3% (751)
By Period
Matthews
Horvat
P1
60.3%
57.0%
P2
55.6%
57.5%
P3
53.3%
57.0%
OT
45.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 14:30 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |