Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 54.5% vs Wagner 47.3% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.0%
Defensive zone
Wagner 65.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 61.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Matthews
Wagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Matthews
Wagner
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Wagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Wagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
0
2
Matthews
Wagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Wagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Wagner
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (856)
50.0% (190)
+5.1%
Power Play
54.3% (46)
20.0% (5)
+34.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
35.2% (54)
+14.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wagner shoots right. Matthews is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Matthews shoots left. Wagner is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Matthews
Wagner
Home
57.0% (440)
50.0% (134)
Away
53.1% (480)
41.7% (115)
By Period
Matthews
Wagner
P1
54.0%
48.8%
P2
55.1%
42.0%
P3
56.4%
48.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2019 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 15, 2019 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |