Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Wagner 47.1% (+12.4%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 58.9%
Defensive zone
Wagner 58.9%
Neutral zone
Wagner 54.1%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Matthews
Wagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Wagner
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
41.6% (77)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
51.6% (31)
-0.9%
On even strength, Matthews has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wagner shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Wagner is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Matthews
Wagner
Home
59.1% (528)
46.3% (54)
Away
55.1% (695)
42.6% (54)
By Period
Matthews
Wagner
P1
56.2%
48.6%
P2
58.1%
55.9%
P3
56.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
55.5%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
44.4%