Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Bedard 40.7% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 93.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.7%
91.7%
8.3%
Matthews
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Matthews
Bedard
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Bedard
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Bedard
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
1
Matthews
Bedard
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
38.9% (512)
+14.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
43.8% (16)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
25.0% (4)
+16.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Bedard is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bedard
Home
56.5% (703)
40.2% (246)
Away
50.0% (616)
37.8% (286)
By Period
Matthews
Bedard
P1
52.1%
39.9%
P2
54.0%
38.5%
P3
54.0%
39.0%
OT
57.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 19:38 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |