Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Bedard 46.7% (+13.7%)
Offensive zone
Bedard 56.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 55.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Matthews
Bedard
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
44.2% (450)
+15.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
70.0% (30)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
53.8% (13)
+2.5%
On even strength, Matthews has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bedard
Home
60.0% (520)
50.7% (223)
Away
59.3% (452)
42.2% (270)
By Period
Matthews
Bedard
P1
60.2%
40.8%
P2
58.2%
48.2%
P3
60.4%
48.0%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%