Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +18.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Bedard 39.8% (+18.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 57.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 50.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Matthews
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Matthews
Bedard
Last 9: Matthews 4-5 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Bedard
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
0
5
Matthews
Bedard
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
38.0% (618)
+20.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
38.7% (31)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
57.1% (7)
-6.4%
On even strength, Matthews has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bedard
Home
59.1% (528)
40.5% (316)
Away
55.1% (695)
36.2% (340)
By Period
Matthews
Bedard
P1
56.2%
37.2%
P2
58.1%
36.9%
P3
56.4%
40.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |