Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Cozens 52.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 78.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 68.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
Matthews
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
52.6% (606)
+7.2%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
58.5% (94)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (6)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cozens
Home
60.0% (520)
54.1% (375)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.3% (331)
By Period
Matthews
Cozens
P1
60.2%
55.8%
P2
58.2%
50.6%
P3
60.4%
53.7%
OT
70.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |