Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Cozens 45.9% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 69.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 66.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 71.0%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Matthews
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Cozens
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Cozens
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
3
Matthews
Cozens
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
2
Matthews
Cozens
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
46.7% (786)
+6.7%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
43.9% (171)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
42.3% (189)
-0.4%
On power play, Matthews has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cozens
Home
56.5% (703)
46.2% (567)
Away
50.0% (616)
44.9% (579)
By Period
Matthews
Cozens
P1
52.1%
46.5%
P2
54.0%
46.5%
P3
54.0%
44.2%
OT
57.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
54.6%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | OT | 03:38 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:44 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |