Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Cozens 48.4% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.3%
Defensive zone
Cozens 60.4%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.4%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Matthews
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Matthews
Cozens
Last 8: Matthews 4-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Cozens
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
2
Matthews
Cozens
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Cozens
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
49.4% (859)
+3.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
49.5% (186)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
39.5% (129)
+35.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +35.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Cozens is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cozens
Home
54.8% (515)
49.0% (600)
Away
50.2% (534)
47.6% (574)
By Period
Matthews
Cozens
P1
54.4%
46.5%
P2
50.4%
52.9%
P3
51.8%
45.2%
OT
75.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |