Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Cozens 50.6% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 83.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 82.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 79.7%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 83.0%
17.0%
83.0%
Matthews
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Matthews
Cozens
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
4
Matthews
Cozens
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
3
Matthews
Cozens
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Matthews
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
51.4% (891)
+6.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.5% (184)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
42.4% (85)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Cozens is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cozens
Home
59.1% (528)
49.5% (638)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.9% (522)
By Period
Matthews
Cozens
P1
56.2%
51.9%
P2
58.1%
46.4%
P3
56.4%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:14 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |