Auston Matthews vs J.T. Miller

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

J.T. Miller holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Matthews 58.8% vs Miller 59.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Miller 62.3%
Defensive zone Matthews 56.5%
Neutral zone Miller 55.9%
Result J.T. Miller favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Matthews Miller
Head-to-Head Record
1 - 3 (4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews Miller

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews Miller
1 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.4% (526)
-1.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
65.3% (118)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
46.8% (62)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +9.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 61.4% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
60.0% (520)
61.8% (351)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.7% (355)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
60.2%
58.5%
P2
58.2%
64.0%
P3
60.4%
59.6%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
63.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%
64.0%
59.7%
Miller
56.0%
62.5%
60.8%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Oct 16, 2025 OT 00:00 Neutral J.T. Miller
Oct 16, 2025 3 13:56 Defensive J.T. Miller
Oct 16, 2025 1 15:08 Offensive J.T. Miller
Oct 16, 2025 1 07:22 Defensive Auston Matthews