Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Miller 59.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 62.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 56.5%
Neutral zone
Miller 55.9%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.4% (526)
-1.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
65.3% (118)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
46.8% (62)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 61.4% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
60.0% (520)
61.8% (351)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.7% (355)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
60.2%
58.5%
P2
58.2%
64.0%
P3
60.4%
59.6%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Miller
56.0%▼
62.5%
60.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |