Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Miller 55.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 62.4%
Defensive zone
Miller 68.6%
Neutral zone
Miller 60.1%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Matthews
Miller
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Miller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Miller
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Miller
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
56.3% (1,033)
-2.9%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
62.5% (253)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
47.4% (175)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
56.5% (703)
58.6% (734)
Away
50.0% (616)
54.1% (727)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
52.1%
57.1%
P2
54.0%
57.0%
P3
54.0%
54.7%
OT
57.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |