Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Miller 59.6% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 57.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 55.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 52.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.5% (540)
-1.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
65.6% (122)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
47.7% (65)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
60.0% (520)
62.1% (372)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.7% (355)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
60.2%
58.9%
P2
58.2%
63.9%
P3
60.4%
59.8%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
63.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |