Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Miller 54.5% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.6%
Defensive zone
Miller 75.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 54.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Matthews
Miller
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
0
Matthews
Miller
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Miller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
55.7% (589)
-3.0%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
60.9% (138)
-26.3%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
47.2% (159)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
54.8% (515)
56.1% (440)
Away
50.2% (534)
53.8% (446)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
54.4%
52.3%
P2
50.4%
54.7%
P3
51.8%
57.2%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 10:19 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:04 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |