Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Miller 45.3% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 55.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 56.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 52.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Matthews
Miller
Last 6: Matthews 3-3 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
2
Matthews
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
44.7% (284)
+1.5%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
46.0% (50)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
30.4% (23)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
48.4% (562)
44.2% (206)
Away
45.3% (570)
43.7% (151)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
51.3%
44.1%
P2
44.5%
40.2%
P3
44.6%
46.2%
OT
55.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2017 | OT | 02:39 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 23, 2017 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |