Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 54.5% vs Miller 58.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 60.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 59.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Matthews
Miller
Last 9: Matthews 2-7 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
4
Matthews
Miller
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
2
Matthews
Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Miller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (856)
58.4% (618)
-3.3%
Power Play
54.3% (46)
69.1% (55)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
57.8% (45)
-7.8%
On power play, Miller has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (497).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
57.0% (440)
58.7% (390)
Away
53.1% (480)
59.8% (328)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
54.0%
59.5%
P2
55.1%
61.6%
P3
56.4%
56.4%
OT
42.9%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.7%
64.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 14:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 07:25 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 19:40 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |