Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Hughes 38.0% (+21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 95.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 95.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 95.4%
95.4%
4.6%
Matthews
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Hughes
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
1
Matthews
Hughes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
34.5% (342)
+21.8%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
42.9% (7)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
25.0% (4)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Hughes is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hughes
Home
60.7% (572)
32.6% (187)
Away
52.4% (657)
36.7% (166)
By Period
Matthews
Hughes
P1
60.3%
33.9%
P2
55.6%
34.2%
P3
53.3%
36.5%
OT
45.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
29.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:16 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |