Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Hughes 36.6% (+17.8%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 17-9 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 98.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 98.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 95.8%
95.8%
4.2%
Matthews
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
9
(26 meetings)
17
9
Matthews
Hughes
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
5
Matthews
Hughes
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
0
Matthews
Hughes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
4
Matthews
Hughes
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
36.0% (2,887)
+18.0%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
38.8% (224)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
31.0% (42)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hughes
Home
56.3% (5,065)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Matthews
Hughes
P1
55.5%
36.9%
P2
53.3%
33.6%
P3
52.8%
38.1%
OT
56.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:42 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |