Auston Matthews vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 72.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 54.2%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 52.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.3% (207)
+12.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
100.0% (3)
-35.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (3)
+23.0%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Home
60.0% (520)
46.5% (129)
Away
59.3% (452)
50.0% (84)
By Period
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
P1
60.2%
51.3%
P2
58.2%
46.1%
P3
60.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |