Auston Matthews vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Kotkaniemi 51.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 58.2%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 51.7%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 57.0%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.7% (586)
+1.7%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
48.1% (52)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
62.5% (8)
-20.6%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Home
56.5% (703)
49.5% (313)
Away
50.0% (616)
53.5% (333)
By Period
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
P1
52.1%
54.5%
P2
54.0%
51.1%
P3
54.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |