Auston Matthews vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Kotkaniemi 51.5% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 75.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 62.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.8% (670)
+5.5%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
37.5% (32)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
14.3% (7)
+36.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
Home
59.1% (528)
52.5% (366)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.0% (343)
By Period
Matthews
Kotkaniemi
P1
56.2%
53.8%
P2
58.1%
49.2%
P3
56.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |