Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Veleno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Veleno 48.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 63.6%
Defensive zone
Veleno 76.3%
Neutral zone
Veleno 66.0%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Matthews
Veleno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Matthews
Veleno
Last 6: Matthews 2-4 Veleno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
2
Matthews
Veleno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Veleno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
0
2
Matthews
Veleno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Veleno
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
49.1% (438)
+7.2%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
37.5% (16)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Veleno shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Veleno is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Matthews
Veleno
Home
60.7% (572)
44.0% (184)
Away
52.4% (657)
51.1% (276)
By Period
Matthews
Veleno
P1
60.3%
50.8%
P2
55.6%
50.4%
P3
53.3%
43.9%
OT
45.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 15:27 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |