Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Veleno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Veleno 47.2% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Veleno leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 79.8%
Defensive zone
Veleno 83.9%
Neutral zone
Veleno 80.5%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 81.3%
18.7%
81.3%
Matthews
Veleno
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
15
(24 meetings)
9
15
Matthews
Veleno
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Veleno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
5
Matthews
Veleno
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
6
Matthews
Veleno
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
4
Matthews
Veleno
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Veleno
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
47.4% (2,311)
+6.6%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
51.0% (98)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
36.4% (88)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Veleno shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Veleno is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,618).
Home / Away
Matthews
Veleno
Home
56.3% (5,065)
45.3% (1,136)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.6% (1,361)
By Period
Matthews
Veleno
P1
55.5%
48.0%
P2
53.3%
47.7%
P3
52.8%
45.9%
OT
56.6%
35.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |