Auston Matthews vs Kevin Stenlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Stenlund 54.2% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 92.7%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 55.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Matthews
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Stenlund
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
56.2% (605)
+3.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
53.2% (47)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
51.8% (305)
+4.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Stenlund is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stenlund
Home
60.0% (520)
57.0% (446)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Matthews
Stenlund
P1
60.2%
55.4%
P2
58.2%
53.2%
P3
60.4%
56.2%
OT
70.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
58.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |