Auston Matthews vs Kevin Stenlund
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 67.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 70.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 55.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Matthews
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Stenlund
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Matthews
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
58.6% (797)
-0.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
62.5% (24)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
60.5% (233)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stenlund
Home
59.1% (528)
58.6% (548)
Away
55.1% (695)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Matthews
Stenlund
P1
56.2%
60.2%
P2
58.1%
59.1%
P3
56.4%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
58.6%
Final 5 min
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |