Auston Matthews vs Mikael Backlund
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Backlund 48.5% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 78.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 62.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Matthews
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Matthews
Backlund
Last 9: Matthews 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Matthews
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Matthews
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
50.4% (1,032)
+7.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
52.3% (107)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
40.6% (313)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Matthews
Backlund
Home
59.1% (528)
48.7% (749)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Matthews
Backlund
P1
56.2%
50.4%
P2
58.1%
50.1%
P3
56.4%
45.8%
OT
50.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |