Auston Matthews vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 68.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Matthews
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
10
(23 meetings)
13
10
Matthews
MacKinnon
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Matthews
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Matthews
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
4
Matthews
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.0% (992)
+9.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
64.9% (148)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
34.4% (32)
+21.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Matthews
MacKinnon
Home
60.0% (520)
53.3% (591)
Away
59.3% (452)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Matthews
MacKinnon
P1
60.2%
49.9%
P2
58.2%
53.2%
P3
60.4%
50.8%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |