Auston Matthews vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 58 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 74-63 in 137 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 73.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 67.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 75.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Matthews
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
74
-
63
(137 meetings)
74
63
Matthews
MacKinnon
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
19
20
Matthews
MacKinnon
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
19
21
Matthews
MacKinnon
40 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
36
22
Matthews
MacKinnon
58 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
53.3% (1,412)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
42.8% (502)
+7.0%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Matthews
MacKinnon
Home
56.3% (5,065)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Matthews
MacKinnon
P1
55.5%
47.4%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
52.8%
46.1%
OT
56.6%
48.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |