Auston Matthews vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 69.3%
30.7%
69.3%
Matthews
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Matthews
MacKinnon
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Matthews
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Matthews
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
45.5% (1,190)
+7.9%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
56.4% (94)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
40.0% (30)
+1.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Matthews
MacKinnon
Home
56.5% (703)
47.8% (670)
Away
50.0% (616)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Matthews
MacKinnon
P1
52.1%
45.3%
P2
54.0%
48.5%
P3
54.0%
45.0%
OT
57.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 13:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |