Auston Matthews vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 23-18 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 75.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Matthews
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
18
(41 meetings)
23
18
Matthews
MacKinnon
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
9
Matthews
MacKinnon
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
5
Matthews
MacKinnon
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
4
Matthews
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
49.2% (1,266)
+9.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
54.9% (193)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
49.1% (55)
+1.6%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Matthews
MacKinnon
Home
59.1% (528)
50.9% (740)
Away
55.1% (695)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Matthews
MacKinnon
P1
56.2%
50.9%
P2
58.1%
51.8%
P3
56.4%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 16:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |