Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 55.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 90.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 73.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Matthews
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Matthews
Bjugstad
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
3
Matthews
Bjugstad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
5
Matthews
Bjugstad
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
6
Matthews
Bjugstad
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
49.4% (867)
+3.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
56.0% (25)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
40.7% (216)
+34.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bjugstad
Home
54.8% (515)
46.5% (480)
Away
50.2% (534)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Matthews
Bjugstad
P1
54.4%
48.7%
P2
50.4%
45.6%
P3
51.8%
49.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |