Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 85.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 50.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 73.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Matthews
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Matthews
Bjugstad
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Bjugstad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Matthews
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
50.7% (906)
+2.7%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
48.1% (108)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
44.4% (239)
-2.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bjugstad
Home
56.5% (703)
49.8% (643)
Away
50.0% (616)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Matthews
Bjugstad
P1
52.1%
49.4%
P2
54.0%
50.5%
P3
54.0%
47.9%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:05 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |