Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+9.4%)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 59.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 54.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Matthews
Bjugstad
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
46.7% (398)
+11.6%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
51.6% (31)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
62.5% (8)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bjugstad
Home
59.1% (528)
47.3% (220)
Away
55.1% (695)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Matthews
Bjugstad
P1
56.2%
46.1%
P2
58.1%
46.3%
P3
56.4%
50.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%