Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Bonino 51.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 71.0%
Defensive zone
Bonino 82.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 66.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Matthews
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews
Bonino
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Bonino
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Matthews
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
2
Matthews
Bonino
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.7% (777)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
60.0% (50)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
43.9% (98)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Bonino is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bonino
Home
60.7% (572)
48.2% (461)
Away
52.4% (657)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Matthews
Bonino
P1
60.3%
54.1%
P2
55.6%
49.7%
P3
53.3%
50.7%
OT
45.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |