Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Bonino 50.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 20-12 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 60.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 77.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Matthews
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
12
(32 meetings)
20
12
Matthews
Bonino
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
12
6
Matthews
Bonino
18 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Bonino
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
5
Matthews
Bonino
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
50.6% (8,315)
+3.4%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
54.1% (972)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
44.6% (1,693)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bonino
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Matthews
Bonino
P1
55.5%
50.6%
P2
53.3%
48.5%
P3
52.8%
51.1%
OT
56.6%
45.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 07:26 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 3 | 12:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |