Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 73.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 97.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 92.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 95.6%
95.6%
4.4%
Matthews
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Schmaltz
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
45.9% (665)
+13.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
46.8% (111)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.0% (24)
+6.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Matthews
Schmaltz
Home
60.0% (520)
44.7% (409)
Away
59.3% (452)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Matthews
Schmaltz
P1
60.2%
40.3%
P2
58.2%
47.6%
P3
60.4%
51.0%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |