Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 58.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 66.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Matthews
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Matthews
Schmaltz
Last 7: Matthews 4-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
48.1% (268)
+10.2%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.5% (91)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
58.8% (17)
-8.1%
On even strength, Matthews has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Matthews
Schmaltz
Home
59.1% (528)
49.0% (206)
Away
55.1% (695)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Matthews
Schmaltz
P1
56.2%
53.6%
P2
58.1%
46.2%
P3
56.4%
50.4%
OT
50.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |