Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 63.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 55.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 54.9%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Matthews
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
42.9% (133)
+13.4%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
55.1% (89)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
47.1% (17)
+2.9%
On even strength, Matthews has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Schmaltz is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Matthews
Schmaltz
Home
60.7% (572)
41.6% (125)
Away
52.4% (657)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Matthews
Schmaltz
P1
60.3%
40.0%
P2
55.6%
59.5%
P3
53.3%
45.0%
OT
45.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |