Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 68.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 79.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 76.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Matthews
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
38.5% (309)
+14.9%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
53.2% (79)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
25.0% (12)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Matthews
Schmaltz
Home
56.5% (703)
38.0% (184)
Away
50.0% (616)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Matthews
Schmaltz
P1
52.1%
40.3%
P2
54.0%
39.9%
P3
54.0%
40.7%
OT
57.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |