Auston Matthews vs Pavel Buchnevich
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Buchnevich 41.2% (+19.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 18-5 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 98.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 97.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 94.5%
94.5%
5.5%
Matthews
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
5
(23 meetings)
18
5
Matthews
Buchnevich
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
2
Matthews
Buchnevich
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Buchnevich
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Buchnevich
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
37.0% (211)
+21.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.0% (10)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
28.6% (7)
+22.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Matthews
Buchnevich
Home
59.1% (528)
35.6% (87)
Away
55.1% (695)
38.3% (141)
By Period
Matthews
Buchnevich
P1
56.2%
36.3%
P2
58.1%
37.6%
P3
56.4%
38.1%
Final 5 min
55.5%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 13:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:09 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 05:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |