Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Gagner 47.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 56.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 74.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 79.9%
79.9%
20.1%
Matthews
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Gagner
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.3% (158)
+5.0%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
66.7% (36)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
33.6% (110)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gagner
Home
60.7% (572)
53.2% (154)
Away
52.4% (657)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Matthews
Gagner
P1
60.3%
35.6%
P2
55.6%
52.7%
P3
53.3%
51.9%
OT
45.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |