Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Gagner 46.0% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 85.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 93.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 93.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Matthews
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Matthews
Gagner
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
2
Matthews
Gagner
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Gagner
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Matthews
Gagner
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
45.4% (4,699)
+8.6%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
51.5% (928)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
35.0% (226)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gagner
Home
56.3% (5,065)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Matthews
Gagner
P1
55.5%
44.6%
P2
53.3%
46.1%
P3
52.8%
47.3%
OT
56.6%
42.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 22, 2017 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |