Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Reinhart 48.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 68.9%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 64.0%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 65.2%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Matthews
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Reinhart
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
2
Matthews
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
48.0% (275)
+8.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
48.1% (52)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
53.1% (32)
-3.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Reinhart is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Matthews
Reinhart
Home
60.7% (572)
49.8% (201)
Away
52.4% (657)
46.8% (158)
By Period
Matthews
Reinhart
P1
60.3%
54.8%
P2
55.6%
40.5%
P3
53.3%
50.0%
OT
45.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:12 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |