Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 94.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 84.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Matthews
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Matthews
Reinhart
Last 6: Matthews 5-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Reinhart
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
44.6% (345)
+8.8%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
43.3% (97)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
43.2% (88)
-1.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Matthews
Reinhart
Home
56.5% (703)
47.9% (267)
Away
50.0% (616)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Matthews
Reinhart
P1
52.1%
45.6%
P2
54.0%
42.0%
P3
54.0%
45.4%
OT
57.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.6%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2023 | OT | 02:32 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |