Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Reinhart 50.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 51.4%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 59.5%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 53.5%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Matthews
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews
Reinhart
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
4
Matthews
Reinhart
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
49.4% (259)
+3.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
54.4% (136)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
47.9% (71)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Reinhart is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Matthews
Reinhart
Home
54.8% (515)
54.9% (235)
Away
50.2% (534)
46.3% (231)
By Period
Matthews
Reinhart
P1
54.4%
52.3%
P2
50.4%
50.0%
P3
51.8%
50.0%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | OT | 00:12 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |