Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Pinto 50.7% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 79.8%
Defensive zone
Pinto 50.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 73.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Matthews
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Pinto
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pinto
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.2% (520)
+9.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
68.0% (25)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
49.4% (89)
+6.9%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Pinto is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pinto
Home
60.0% (520)
48.8% (301)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.6% (333)
By Period
Matthews
Pinto
P1
60.2%
51.2%
P2
58.2%
48.9%
P3
60.4%
53.3%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |