Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Pinto 50.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 16-7 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 97.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 78.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 88.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Matthews
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
7
(23 meetings)
16
7
Matthews
Pinto
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
1
Matthews
Pinto
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Pinto
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Pinto
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
50.4% (779)
+7.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
55.2% (29)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
44.9% (78)
+5.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Pinto is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pinto
Home
59.1% (528)
52.4% (454)
Away
55.1% (695)
47.7% (432)
By Period
Matthews
Pinto
P1
56.2%
48.1%
P2
58.1%
52.9%
P3
56.4%
49.3%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:52 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |